Weekly Review
Newsletter - 06/13/2022

Week of June 6, 2022 in Review

Consumer inflation reached a 41-year high in May while annual home price appreciation tied another record high in April. Here are the key headlines:

  • Consumer Inflation Hits Highest Level Since 1981
  • Majority of Top Economists Do Not Believe We’re in a Housing Bubble
  • Annual Home Price Appreciation Ties Record High
  • Does the Rise in Initial Jobless Claims Signal a Slowdown?

Consumer Inflation Hits Highest Level Since 1981

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation on the consumer level, rose 1% in May, which was much higher than the expected 0.7% gain. On an annual basis, CPI rose from 8.3% to 8.6%, which is the hottest reading in 41 years. Core…

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  • Home sellers really need to re-think their expectations.
  •          The days of “multiple offers and waived inspections are behind us.”
  •          Active Listings up a whopping 59% from a year ago.
  •          Both pending sales (mutually accepted offers) and closed sales during May were down from a year ago.
  •          Rising interest rates coupled with inflation are causing buyers that rely on conventional mortgages to reconsider the affordability.

“Home sellers really need to re-think their expectations,” suggested Mike Larson, a member of the board of directors at Northwest Multiple Listing Service (NWMLS) when commenting on statistics summarizing May activity. The new report showed a significant increase in active listings…

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1. What does the changing housing market mean for Sellers? 
    

This isn't 2008. Home prices haven't started falling. Looking at Western Washington: Area-wide prices for single family home sales (excluding condos) in King County also increased, climbing nearly 20% from a year ago, from $830,000 to $995,000.

And though the supply of newly built homes has increased, that's actually a small part of the overall market. Inventories of existing homes are still some of the lowest on record, as of April.

 

2. What do increasing interest rates mean for Buyers?

    

“We are starting to see signs of impact from the significant rise in mortgage rates earlier this year, such as an increase in active listings and months of inventory creeping…

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Weekly Review
Newsletter - 06/06/2022

Week of May 30, 2022 in Review

The Unemployment Rate held steady in May while home price appreciation surged above 20% on an annual basis in March. Here are the most crucial headlines:

  • What the Unemployment Rate Really Shows
  • May Private Payrolls Much Lower Than Expected
  • What’s Ahead for Jobless Claims?
  • Home Prices in March 20.6% Higher Than a Year Ago

What the Unemployment Rate Really Shows

 

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that there were 390,000 jobs created in May, which was stronger than expectations of 320,000 new jobs. However, there were negative revisions to the data for March and April, removing 22,000 jobs in those months combined, which tempered the…

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Weekly Review
Newsletter - 05/31/2022

Week of May 23, 2022 in Review

Headlines showed that April brought moderating inflation and slower home sales, but that’s not the whole story. Low inventory and completion delays continued to impede home sales, and more signs of an economic slowdown are on the horizon.

Inflation Moderates in April, But Don’t Be Fooled

The Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), showed that headline inflation rose 0.2% in April, cooler than estimates of 0.3%. This caused the year over year reading to decrease from 6.6% to 6.3%. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices and is the Fed’s real focus, met estimates with a 0.3% rise. Year over year, Core PCE decreased from…

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The Real Estate Market “Shift” Is Here

Looks like America's home buying binge is winding down. There's a vibe shift visible in both the official data and in the anecdata from sellers, buyers, and brokers.

Why it matters: This is just what Jerome Powell ordered. The slowdown means the Fed's rate hikes are working — cooling demand in an overheated market.

"The buyers just stopped buying," said Shauna Pendleton, an agent with Redfin. Buyers who were flush with cash courtesy of the also formerly booming stock market have completely pulled back.

  • Some listings now sit for weeks without even a showing. Some homes are sitting for 42 days without a single showing.
  • Redfin agent Robin Glaysher said five people showed up to an open house last…

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Fueled by unprecedented gains in home values, Washington State’s red hot real estate market has led to “unprecedented” increases in home values that will drive up next year’s property tax bills, according to the King County assessor’s office.

 The Sammamish Plateau topped the list with a 52% increase from the previous year. That’s double the still eye-popping 26% increase in Federal Way. Other Eastside cities also saw staggering price increases; areas such as Redmond (43% on average), Woodinville (44%) and Kirkland (44.5%).

While not as extreme as on the Eastside, in Seattle proper, values are up 19% in Rainier Beach and 20% in Magnolia, according to the assessor’s office, which released a sample of data Thursday but is still finalizing values…

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Weekly Review
Newsletter - 05/23/2022

Week of May 16, 2022 in Review

Sales of existing homes and construction of single-family homes eased in April, while Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments caused volatility in the markets.

Existing Home Sales Edge Lower

Existing Home Sales, which measure closings on existing homes, showed that sales were down 2.4% in April at a 5.61 million unit annualized pace. This data likely reflects people shopping for homes in February and March, which included much of the rise in rates we’ve seen – but not all of it. On a year over year basis, sales were only down 5.9%, which is still quite strong considering higher rates, higher home prices and tight inventory.

What’s the bottom line? There were 1.03…

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Weekly Review
Newsletter - 05/16/2022

Week of May 9, 2022 in Review

Inflation remains hot on both the consumer and wholesale levels. Here are the key stories to note:

  • Consumer Inflation Near 40-year Highs
  • Wholesale Inflation Remains Elevated
  • Initial Jobless Claims Rise for Second Straight Week
  • Small Business Expectations for Better Business Conditions Hits 48-year Low
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell Confirmed for Second Term

Consumer Inflation Near 40-year Highs

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation on the consumer level, rose 0.3% in April, just above the expected 0.2% gain. On an annual basis, CPI eased slightly from March’s reading of 8.5% (the hottest reading in 41 years) to 8.3%. While the year over…

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Pricing your property is a balancing act:

On the one hand, you want to set a listing price that maximizes interest among qualified, motivated buyers who will be willing to pay top dollar for your property. Indeed, such buyers will ultimately determine your property's top market value.

On the other hand, you do not want to set a listing price that attracts a lot of buyer prospects, but sets the stage for negotiations that result in your getting less than what your property is really worth.

Your Home's Actual Market Value

In a perfect world, your home's value would be everything you think and need it to be. However, simply put, your home's value is not determined by you, but by what the market is willing to pay for it at a given time. These…

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